Bouquets of Gray has a tally of the SSM votes for and against broken out by party affiliation.
His conclusion; SSM is safe.
Which leads to an interesting philosophical question for those who are hoping to turf, SSM - why push for the free vote now, if you know you will lose?
Harper's decision to take this to a free vote down the line is smart politics. Smart because SSM will survive the vote, Harper feeds his base some red-meat at no expense to policy or risk to his government. Everybody wins.
Except those who actually want to destroy SSM, but they will get their vote, and then, hopefully they will go away.